Climate Targets
Source: indianexpress
Key Points
- The 2015 Paris agreement requires every country to set self-determined climate targets that have to be progressively updated with more ambitious goals every few years India’s first NDC.
- The nationally determined commitment was submitted in 2015, just before the Paris Agreement was finalized.
- NDC is now updated after Prime Minister Promises in climate change conference in Glasgow.
| Target |
Existing: First NDC 2015 |
New updated NDC 2022 | Progess |
| Emission intensity reduction | 33-35% from 2005 level | 45% from 2005 levels | 24% cut achieved in 2016 itself Estimated to have reached 30% |
|
Share of non-fossil fuels in installed electricity capacity |
40% | 50% | 41.5% achieved by the end of June this year |
| Carbon sink | Creation of 2.5 to 3 billion tones of the additional sink through afforestation | Same as earlier | Not clear |
In Glasgow on November 1 Modi made five promises, calling it PANCHAMRIT, the nectar that India prepared using five ingredients.
Two of these were put in updated NDC-
- India will now reduce its emission intensity by at least 45% instead of just 33-35% from 2005 levels by 2030
- It will ensure that at least 50% -not 40% of its electricity generation comes from renewable sources by 2030.
- Modi had also said that at least 500GW of installed electricity generation capacity in 2030 would be based on non-fossil fuel sources and
- India would reduce total projected emissions by at least 1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent between now and 2030. These two promises have not been converted into official targets.
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As part of the Panchamrit promises, Modi had also announced a net zero target for India for the year 2070.
Net zero is a situation in which a country’s greenhouse gas emissions are offset entirely, either by absorption of carbon dioxide through processes like photosynthesis or through the physical removal of greenhouse gases using futuristic technologies.
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But net zero is a long-term target and does not qualify to be included in the NDC which seeks 5-10 year climate targets from countries.
Prime Minister Panchamrit Announced in Glasgow the promise that India Made-Whether was included in New NDC.
| Non–fossil fuel electricity installed capacity to reach 500 GW | Not included |
| At least 50% of total installed electricity generation capacity to come from non-fossil fuel sources |
included |
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Reduction of one billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent from cumulative projected emissions between now and 2030 |
not Included
|
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At least a 45% reduction in emission intensity of GDP by 2030
Net zero status by
|
included
Never intended to be part of NDC |
Progress on Targets
- India’s emissions intensity was 24% lower than the 2005 level in 2016 itself.
- It is very likely that the 33-35% reduction target has already been achieved, or is very close to being achieved.
- A further reduction of 10-12% from here to meet the new target does not appear too challenging.
- The other target –having at least 40% of electricity coming from non-fossil fuels has officially been reached.
- According to the latest data from the power ministry, 41.5% of India’s current installed electricity capacity of 403 GW is powered by non-fossil fuels.
Tricky Glasgow Promises
The two Glasgow promises that have not been made official targets – on non-fossil fuel electricity generation capacity and cutting net projected emissions were both tricky.
| 500 GW non-fossil fuel electricity capacity of the current installed capacity of 403 GW, over 236 GW or 58.5% comes from fossil fuel sources, while non-fossil fuels make up only 167 GW. To meet the 500 GW target, capacity additions from non-fossil sources would have to triple by 2030. |
- The total installed electricity capacity has more than doubled from 199 GW IN 2012 to 403 GW now, but that is not only because of non-fossil fuel sources, installed capacity from fossil fuels has doubled during this period.
- Reducing at least a billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent from cumulative projected emissions till 2030;
- For the first time, India had announced a climate target in terms of absolute emission reductions.
- But it Appears not much preparatory work was done –India does not have an official projection of its emissions in 2030, and the emissions pathway from now to 2030 is unclear.
- In the absence of a baseline, the target would have been meaningless.
